Wed, Mar 28, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 3, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 17 | 19 | 330 |
| CGY | 09 | 06 | 04 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30LAKWillie MitchellGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:22LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 18:51LAKJustin WilliamsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:03LAKJarret Stoll: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:23CGYScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P1 17:43LAKMike Richards: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:12LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31CGYClay Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:34CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 19:09LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:31CGYTim Jackman: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:31LAKAlec Martinez: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:12CGYTim Jackman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cammalleri won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar10:07
xG 0.94–0.09 (91%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Carter – Richards – King9:11
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis8:35
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:37
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty13:52
xG 1.01–0.15 (87%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov14:27
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez8:39
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Stajan – Comeau2:39
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Glencross2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau8:09
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Jones5:18
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Babchuk – Wilson8:41
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Butler2:28
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Hannan – Giordano10:18
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).