Thu, Mar 29, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 02 | 07 | 211 | 03 | 3 | 323 |
| BOS | 07 | 08 | 212 | 01 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:59WSHDennis WidemanAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 9:54WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 16:50BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:44BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 2. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
- 3. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 6. WSH Alexander Semin scored
- 7. BOS Rich Peverley stopped
- 8. WSH Brooks Laich scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:00WSHJason Chimera: Charging5 min
- P1 14:00WSHJason Chimera: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 11:08BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault2:36
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Semin – Brouwer3:33
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Brouwer – Eakin5:28
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Perreault2:42
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Green17:13
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson2:04
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov9:57
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Seguin11:12
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron7:45
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Peverley – Marchand9:28
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic2:13
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Zanon3:03
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Corvo – Zanon8:20
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid4:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).