Thu, Mar 29, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 210 | 310 | 730 |
| TOR | 15 | 06 | 06 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:01PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 14:16TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Tim Connolly, Joey Crabb · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 3:55PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Daniel Brière, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 12:03PHIMatt ReadSHAssists: Max Talbot, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.53 xG4–1
- P3 5:49PHIEric WellwoodAssists: Matt Read, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG5–1
- P3 7:51PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–1
- P3 11:44PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Daniel Brière, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.07 xG7–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:17TORJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:17TORJay Rosehill: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:38TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:38PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:36PHIJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:54PHIMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:05PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:05TORMike Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:05TORMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:25PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:21TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:21PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:21TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Wellwood – Read7:27
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier8:32
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn6:12
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux6:06
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon11:30
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Kubina – Gustafsson10:37
xG 0.69–0.65 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Bourdon – Gustafsson3:58
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Frattin – Ashton6:51
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Rosehill – Brown4:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Crabb – Grabovski7:03
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak9:47
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner12:31
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:21
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner2:05
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).