Thu, Mar 29, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 17 | 215 | 329 |
| NYI | 14 | 29 | 211 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07NYIMarty ReasonerAssists: Mark Streit, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:37PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Craig Adams, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:36NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 18:36NYIJosh BaileySHAssists: Jay Pandolfo · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 5:52NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 8:20PITJordan StaalAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 18:29PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:55NYIJosh BaileyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:11PITMatt Cooke: Holding2 min
- P1 14:20NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:40PITSimon Despres: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:11NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:11PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:44PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:44PITJames Neal: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:09NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal6:27
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal6:22
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby4:46
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Strait9:48
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Martin – Engelland2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek10:56
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:47
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Grabner – Niederreiter6:16
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey6:41
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Martin – Cizikas4:02
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Eaton8:42
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Reese11:46
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Eaton – Reese2:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).