Thu, Mar 29, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 18 | 110 | 00 | 227 |
| MIN | 013 | 04 | 27 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:27FLAScottie UpshallPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 1:03MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 13:16FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 19:29MINErik ChristensenAssists: Tom Gilbert, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- OT 0:15MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Tom Gilbert, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:53MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:05MINKyle Brodziak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:52MINStephane Veilleux: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:18FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:35MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:44MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:47FLAKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Upshall12:59
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Sturm – Madden – Smithson7:18
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Bergenheim13:26
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Wolski – Versteeg – Matthias9:11
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov16:06
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison15:35
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:41
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe9:53
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi15:31
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer9:16
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Christensen – Johnson – Zucker9:24
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser16:54
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Stoner16:40
xG 0.28–0.21 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Falk – Kampfer12:32
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).