Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 1, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 08 | 15 | 120 |
| NYR | 18 | 18 | 213 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 0:30NYRBrad RichardsPPGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 8:17NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 16:58NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 17:31MTLRene BourqueAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Chris Campoli · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:06NYRBrad Richards: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:13NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:11MTLAaron Palushaj: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P3 2:35MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:12MTLLouis Leblanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:04NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj6:05
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Leblanc12:07
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Blunden – Geoffrion – Eller12:12
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:10
xG 0.53–1.36 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin10:08
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Markov – Campoli2:47
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban17:02
xG 0.25–0.86 (22%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Hagelin12:01
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan11:49
xG 0.96–0.42 (70%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Anisimov – Stepan8:02
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust5:46
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:08
xG 1.06–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Staal – Del Zotto2:23
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Stralman12:56
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).