Fri, Mar 30, 2012·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 19 | 118 | 11 | 435 |
| CAR | 212 | 112 | 09 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23WPGNik AntropovAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:22CARDerek JoslinAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 16:46CAREric StaalSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 3:49CARBrandon SutterAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 10:25WPGJim SlaterAssists: Spencer Machacek, Zach Bogosian · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 15:13WPGKyle WellwoodPPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 0:16WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:53WPGZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:53CARAnthony Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49CARTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:49CARTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:50WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:25WPGNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:59CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:58WPGRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:26CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 16:04WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:01
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Kane – Burmistrov6:06
xG 0.22–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Kane2:58
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Slater – Glass – Machacek5:20
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian14:46
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Clitsome9:03
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:19
xG 0.82–1.18 (41%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:00
xG 0.32–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman8:06
xG 0.98–1.07 (48%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
- LaRose – Staal – Tlusty11:07
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason14:08
xG 1.21–0.90 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk9:21
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Harrison – McBain2:15
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).