Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 015 | 010 | 16 | 131 |
| CBJ | 16 | 115 | 28 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Derick Brassard, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:48CBJNikita NikitinPPGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, Vinny Prospal · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 3:01CBJNikita NikitinAssists: Derek Dorsett, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 7:57FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Kris Versteeg, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P3 19:12CBJR.J. UmbergerENAssists: Rick Nash, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:28CBJMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:53CBJCam Atkinson: Interference2 min
- P1 11:13CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:14FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:18FLAWojtek Wolski: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:50CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:50FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:19FLATomas Fleischmann: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:48FLAKrys Barch: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Wolski – Versteeg – Matthias8:11
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Madden – Barch – Kopecky4:02
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim7:30
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Upshall12:46
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov3:39
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov11:08
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Kulikov2:16
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson7:43
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Boyce – Boll – Gillies5:45
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Dorsett – Johansen8:37
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu9:02
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore10:39
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout12:08
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Lebda3:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).