Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 113 | 14 | 230 |
| VAN | 17 | 220 | 27 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:16DALSteve OttAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 11:01VANSami SaloPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:25VANAndrew AlbertsGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Maxim Lapierre · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 9:06VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Maxim Lapierre · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 11:18VANMaxim LapierreAssists: Marc-Andre Gragnani, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 17:18DALJake DowellAssists: Tomas Vincour, Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:23DALBrenden Morrow: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:20VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 6:04DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:07DALAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Benn – Vincour8:53
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Dowell – Smith – Garbutt2:35
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Morrow – Dowell – Vincour3:43
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ott – Benn – Smith5:30
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen14:37
xG 1.05–0.27 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 1–3
- Daley – Goligoski2:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas17:00
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Higgins – Hansen12:32
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Lapierre11:36
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Kassian9:50
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond11:30
xG 0.35–0.96 (26%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev17:34
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Salo – Edler2:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Gragnani15:44
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).