Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 17 | 413 | 627 |
| NYI | 17 | 19 | 16 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:11BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:40NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Frans Nielsen, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:58BOSChris KellyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:26NYIPA ParenteauAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:13BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Tyler Seguin, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 10:37BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 14:53NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 16:19BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–3
- P3 16:43BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:56BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:56NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:20BOSMarty Turco: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:02NYIMark Streit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:54
xG 1.15–0.50 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 3–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Caron2:57
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot3:35
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rolston – Thornton – Campbell3:33
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:08
xG 1.47–0.23 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 3–1
- Corvo – Ference2:02
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mottau – Zanon2:27
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPandolfo – Haley – Martin7:46
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Okposo – Bailey2:45
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:14
xG 0.66–0.77 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:35
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Eaton12:24
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:15
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 15–18goals 1–3
- Streit – Reese17:35
xG 1.08–1.35 (44%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).