Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 312 | 010 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 429 |
| PHI | 015 | 314 | 04 | 06 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 11:39OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 14:27OTTChris NeilAssists: Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 2:59PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Daniel Brière · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 14:38PHISean CouturierAssists: Max Talbot, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 17:17PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Daniel Brière, Eric Wellwood · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Matt Read scored
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 5. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:48OTTJared Cowen: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:47PHIMatt Read: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:39OTTFilip Kuba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:04PHIMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- P2 11:24OTTSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
- P2 14:52PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:13OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:56PHIKimmo Timonen: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:50OTTMilan Michalek: Illegal check to head2 min
- OT 4:11OTTFilip Kuba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDaugavins – Condra – Smith4:45
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek2:13
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Klinkhammer – O'Brien3:18
xG 0.09–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Turris8:51
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen7:05
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Phillips – Carkner5:40
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Phillips7:10
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn7:06
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Voracek – Wellwood – Read4:32
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:17
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier10:56
xG 0.03–0.15 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Carle10:49
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann17:45
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Kubina – Bourdon9:41
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).