Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 114 | 013 | 05 | 0 | 241 |
| WSH | 212 | 010 | 011 | 00 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Alexander Semin, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:10WSHJay BeagleAssists: Matt Hendricks, Mike Knuble · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:38MTLErik ColeAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 14:31MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, Frédéric St-Denis · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
- 2. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 5. WSH Alexander Semin scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:22MTLFrédéric St-Denis: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:10MTLPeter Budaj: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 13:45MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:04WSHAlexander Semin: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:48WSHDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 1:34WSHDennis Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:45MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:58MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:09WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Bourque – Leblanc8:00
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:34
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Blunden – Geoffrion – Eller11:48
xG 0.22–0.41 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – St-Denis9:20
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Gorges – Subban16:15
xG 0.75–0.77 (49%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Campoli – Emelin9:54
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault9:53
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Brouwer – Beagle2:53
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Laich – Aucoin – Brouwer5:34
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Beagle5:38
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Alzner11:19
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Carlson – Orlov9:34
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Green12:10
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).