Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 29 | 07 | 00 | 228 |
| TBL | 17 | 010 | 121 | 11 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37TBLRyan MaloneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:20WPGAntti MiettinenAssists: Evander Kane, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:28WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 7:25TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 0:45TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Brian Lee · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:35WPGGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:22TBLJT Wyman: Holding2 min
- P1 16:35TBLTim Wallace: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:50WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:07WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:21WPGRon Hainsey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:44TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:44WPGRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:36WPGJim Slater: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:19WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:05TBLJT Wyman: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:29TBLVictor Hedman: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:29TBLEric Brewer: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:29WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:29WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:29WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:29WPGAndrew Ladd: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:29TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:37
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Antropov – Wellwood – Stapleton7:08
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Machacek5:50
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Kane – Burmistrov6:49
xG 0.26–0.68 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Clitsome7:20
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:06
xG 0.82–1.07 (43%)attempts 15–24goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:08
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos8:27
xG 0.74–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Brown4:45
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos3:06
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Segal – Wyman – Wallace2:23
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Mikkelson3:21
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman11:34
xG 0.81–0.71 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Clark – Lee6:08
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).