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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Columbus Blue Jackets 5, St. Louis Blues 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.

STL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ29110214533
STL112114010236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:16CBJJared BollAssists: Darryl Boyce, Aaron Johnson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:33STLDavid BackesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 12:20CBJR.J. UmbergerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:00CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Rick Nash · Tip-in, 0.33 xG3–1
  5. P2 16:10STLDavid PerronAssists: Andy McDonald, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 10:25CBJDerek DorsettPPAssists: Rick Nash, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.60 xG4–2
  7. P3 18:34CBJVinny ProspalENAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–2
Penalties (24)
  1. P1 9:23CBJColton Gillies: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:54STLKris Russell: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 7:37STLScott Nichol: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:29CBJMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 15:16STLScott Nichol: Instigator2 min
  6. P2 15:16CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
  7. P2 15:16STLScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 15:16STLScott Nichol: Misconduct10 min
  9. P2 15:16CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 18:36CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 0:27STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 2:16CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 2:16STLKent Huskins: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 2:16CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 2:16STLKent Huskins: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 5:06CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
  17. P3 8:27STLKent Huskins: Hooking2 min · PPG
  18. P3 8:49STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 9:06STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 9:06STLAlex Pietrangelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  21. P3 15:38CBJBrett Lebda: Hooking2 min
  22. P3 15:38CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min
  23. P3 15:38STLPatrik Berglund: Roughing2 min
  24. P3 0:00STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
45% to win55% to win
← CBJ attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Letestu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJSTL
33Shots on goal36
4.7Expected goals2.9
50Shot attempts69
31Faceoffs won34
8Power plays5
23Penalty minutes41
8Hits23
16Blocked shots11
2Giveaways5
5Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson7:32

    xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0

  2. Prospal – Nash – Letestu7:47

    xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

  3. Russell – Dorsett – Johansen4:24

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0

  4. Boyce – Boll – Gillies3:15

    xG 0.13–0.32 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLebda – Nikitin9:44

    xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1

  2. Johnson – Goloubef5:22

    xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0

  3. Johnson – Lebda2:17

    xG 0.18–0.07 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSteen – Backes – Oshie6:53

    xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0

  2. McDonald – Berglund – Perron7:18

    xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0

  3. Nichol – D'Agostini – Stewart4:34

    xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 11–4goals 0–2

  4. Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka6:04

    xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJackman – Shattenkirk8:49

    xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1

  2. Huskins – Pietrangelo10:55

    xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0

  3. Polak – Russell9:54

    xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.9 xGCBJ 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #498 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.

STL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).