Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 116 | 36 | 115 | 537 |
| NSH | 012 | 29 | 212 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:05CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 6:50CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 8:35CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 9:29NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 10:18NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Suter, Andrei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 4:38NSHAlexander RadulovAssists: David Legwand, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 7:10NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, David Legwand · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 8:19CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Bryan Bickell · Snap, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:38NSHMatt Halischuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36CHISean O'Donnell: Holding2 min
- P2 9:21CHIDave Bolland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:13NSHMartin Erat: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:46NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:27CHIAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:05CHIDave Bolland: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52NSHAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Bickell – Shaw11:31
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Brunette – Hossa – Kane9:10
xG 0.20–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kruger12:09
xG 0.63–0.83 (43%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Mayers – Hayes – Bollig2:37
xG 0.02–0.41 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Seabrook2:36
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson3:14
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson16:25
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Spaling – Bourque9:00
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Radulov13:10
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Gaustad – Tootoo – Halischuk3:28
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:07
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Josi10:40
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein10:11
xG 0.74–0.74 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Suter – Weber18:12
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).