Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 18 | 07 | 05 | 0 | 329 |
| MIN | 29 | 05 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40MINDarroll PoweAssists: Nate Prosser, Justin Falk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:28LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 3:45MINNick JohnsonAssists: Jason Zucker, Erik Christensen · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P1 15:31LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–2
- P2 0:57LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 10:57MINErik ChristensenAssists: Jason Zucker, Justin Falk · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Erik Christensen scored
- 2. LAK Justin Williams stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. LAK Mike Richards stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:22LAKColin Fraser: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:00LAKMike Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:14MINStephane Veilleux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43MINWarren Peters: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:41MINJustin Falk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:31LAKDwight King: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:37MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Richards – King10:22
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Richardson – Kopitar10:55
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 2–2
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:10
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis10:34
xG 0.05–0.68 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov15:45
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 17–14goals 2–2
- Scuderi – Doughty17:40
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene2:38
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestChristensen – Johnson – Zucker11:59
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi12:31
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer5:04
xG 0.07–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe7:56
xG 0.12–0.46 (20%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Kampfer4:15
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Foster – Falk4:32
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Foster – Gilbert2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).