Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 0, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 021 | 05 | 018 | 044 |
| PHX | 17 | 316 | 06 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Michal Rozsival · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:03PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Derek Morris, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 16:14PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 16:54PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:03PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:14PHXAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:10PHXAdrian Aucoin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:28ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58ANACorey Perry: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58PHXGilbert Brule: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:58ANACorey Perry: Instigator face shield2 min
- P2 15:58PHXGilbert Brule: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:58ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:58ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:47PHXMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25PHXDerek Morris: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:43ANANick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:23PHXMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Getzlaf – Perry8:18
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Smith-Pelly4:01
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano5:27
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake2:19
xG 0.01–0.23 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Brookbank10:34
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lydman – Fowler10:39
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Sbisa13:26
xG 0.40–1.05 (27%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:44
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Brule4:36
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres8:46
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker9:36
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle14:34
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Klesla11:04
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson13:40
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).