Sat, Mar 31, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 0, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 08 | 08 | 022 |
| SJS | 212 | 115 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:38SJSJason DemersPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:39SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:35DALRyan Garbutt: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:29SJSTJ Galiardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:12DALSheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:50DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:56DALVernon Fiddler: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:05SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:42SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:42DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:07DALRyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:07DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:07SJSTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:55DALAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:55DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burish won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Petersen – Dowell3:23
xG 0.11–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott2:12
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn3:01
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Benn5:47
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Fistric14:20
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Larsen13:55
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas10:09
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski7:10
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Galiardi8:35
xG 0.23–0.16 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Desjardins – Wingels7:30
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture8:26
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Demers2:05
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic9:45
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun3:18
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).