Sun, Apr 1, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 5, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 310 | 19 | 532 |
| NYI | 19 | 09 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55NYIMark StreitAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 16:40OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Milan Michalek, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:09OTTSergei GoncharPPGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 6:00OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Kyle Turris, Bobby Butler · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 13:21OTTNick FolignoAssists: Jesse Winchester, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–1
- P3 7:00OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Chris Neil, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:10OTTJared Cowen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 8:26NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:26OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:32OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P2 1:50NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:13NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:24OTTSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pandolfo won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Turris – Butler7:23
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Greening – Foligno – Winchester8:41
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith10:47
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Turris – Butler2:26
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson15:31
xG 1.18–0.69 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Gilroy – Cowen14:35
xG 1.12–0.82 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:40
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPandolfo – Haley – Martin7:02
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:23
xG 0.73–0.66 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Reasoner – Grabner – Niederreiter7:45
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:13
xG 0.40–0.89 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Hamonic2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staios – Eaton13:39
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Streit – MacDonald3:37
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).