Sun, Apr 1, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 08 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 128 |
| DET | 07 | 09 | 115 | 01 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:38FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Kris Versteeg, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 5:30DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jakub Kindl · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. FLA Wojtek Wolski scored
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler scored
- 4. FLA Mikael Samuelsson stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 6. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:45DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P1 9:45DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:58DETJiri Hudler: Interference2 min
- P1 18:05FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:27FLASean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P2 2:05FLATomas Fleischmann: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:08DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 5:38DETKyle Quincey: Elbowing5 min
- P3 5:38DETKyle Quincey: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:26FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg9:38
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim10:47
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Upshall – Wolski – Matthias4:36
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sturm – Madden – Kopecky8:16
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Garrison12:59
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:51
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Weaver2:30
xG 0.02–0.14 (10%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler11:51
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Nyquist10:56
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton6:35
xG 0.20–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader7:03
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Kindl3:36
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl7:38
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson13:12
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).