Sun, Apr 1, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 16 | 412 | 626 |
| PIT | 215 | 015 | 217 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14PITSteve SullivanAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:58PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 15:09PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 1:25PHIMax TalbotAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 2:35PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 6:37PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Eric Wellwood, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 13:15PHIMarc-Andre BourdonGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 15:18PITSteve SullivanAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 18:45PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Matt Carle, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–3
- P3 19:28PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.33 xG6–4
Penalties (23)
- P1 6:58PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min
- P1 16:36PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:20PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:30PITSteve Sullivan: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:17PHIDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:42PHIEric Wellwood: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:12PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09PITMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:57PHIJakub Voracek: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 18:57PHIBrayden Schenn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PITJoe Vitale: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PITCraig Adams: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PHIDaniel Brière: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57PITArron Asham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:57PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:57PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:57PHIPavel Kubina: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PITArron Asham: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:57PITMatt Niskanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57PITPaul Martin: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Wellwood – Read7:34
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier11:10
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn8:21
xG 0.27–0.56 (33%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:53
xG 0.11–0.64 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Bourdon5:59
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Timonen – Kubina2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kubina – Coburn2:06
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal10:55
xG 1.24–0.31 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Crosby9:05
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
- Asham – Adams – Vitale2:36
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal7:56
xG 0.15–0.50 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang17:29
xG 2.23–0.43 (84%)attempts 31–10goals 2–1
- Orpik – Michalek14:29
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Engelland – Niskanen9:08
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).