Tue, Apr 3, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 08 | 04 | 120 |
| NJD | 16 | 18 | 16 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Petr Sykora, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 3:57NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:22NJDTravis ZajacPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:05NJDIlya KovalchukENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:26NYIMicheal Haley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:26NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:26NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54NYIMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23NYIMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:05NYIJosh Bailey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:05NYIKyle Okposo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:05NYIKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey14:03
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Niederreiter11:45
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Haley – Martin6:58
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:18
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Donovan3:53
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald3:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Reese – Donovan13:39
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Bernier – Henrique10:11
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:50
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Janssen – Carter – Josefson3:04
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac15:40
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold13:45
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene17:13
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Salvador – Zidlicky20:39
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).