Tue, Apr 3, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 411 | 18 | 05 | 524 |
| PHI | 013 | 213 | 114 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:30NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Ruslan Fedotenko · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 18:02NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–0
- P1 18:38NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–0
- P2 12:55PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 19:09NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
- P2 19:53PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 10:46PHIScott HartnellAssists: Andreas Lilja, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 7:48NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 11:06NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:06PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:07NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:08NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:08PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:18PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02PHIPavel Kubina: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:05PHIBrayden Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:47NYRBrad Richards: Interference2 min
- P2 13:35NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11PHIMax Talbot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47NYRDan Girardi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:58NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:03NYRCarl Hagelin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:25NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Dubinsky4:57
xG 1.05–0.17 (86%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin9:47
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Callahan – Anisimov – Stepan7:46
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh13:19
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Staal – Stralman7:53
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto2:43
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Read7:29
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux10:10
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier6:22
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Wellwood3:06
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Bourdon8:28
xG 0.81–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn8:33
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle3:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).