Tue, Apr 3, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 213 | 210 | 12 | 530 |
| FLA | 212 | 110 | 112 | 04 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03FLAMarco SturmAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Marcel Goc · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 14:00FLAKris VersteegPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 0:25FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 13:15WPGEvander KaneAssists: Spencer Machacek, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 17:21WPGZach BogosianUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 0:53WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:45WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 16:07FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Marco Sturm, Scottie Upshall · Snap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 3:12WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:39WPGGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15WPGChris Thorburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:40FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:00FLAMike Weaver: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Cormier7:33
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little14:50
xG 1.06–0.83 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton9:58
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Machacek – Kane – Burmistrov11:00
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian12:54
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:49
xG 0.92–0.54 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Clitsome8:04
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg15:34
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim11:36
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Sturm – Madden – Kopecky5:54
xG 0.08–0.44 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Wolski – Matthias8:11
xG 0.42–0.83 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison17:58
xG 1.46–0.39 (79%)attempts 25–14goals 2–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov18:12
xG 0.57–1.05 (35%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).