Tue, Apr 3, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 210 | 211 | 526 |
| DAL | 112 | 19 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09SJSDaniel WinnikAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:47DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mark Fistric · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:10DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Jamie Benn, Philip Larsen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 11:42SJSTJ GaliardiAssists: Dominic Moore, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 17:24SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 15:10SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:56SJSRyane CloweENAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:38SJSColin White: Interference2 min
- P1 19:40SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:10DALEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:57DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27DALMark Fistric: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:56DALMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Burish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:31
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Galiardi9:11
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture10:59
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Winnik – Desjardins – Wingels9:53
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers9:57
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Boyle – Vlasic15:34
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Demers2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson7:11
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Vincour6:16
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson4:28
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Burish – Nystrom3:46
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen14:48
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 17–18goals 1–2
- Daley – Goligoski2:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Daley – Fistric12:43
xG 0.28–0.34 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).