Wed, Apr 4, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 06 | 26 | 03 | 1 | 328 |
| STL | 011 | 09 | 27 | 02 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:18STLDavid PerronSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 10:19STLAndy McDonaldUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 13:55DETJohan FranzenAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 16:10DETJohan FranzenAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. STL Andy McDonald stopped
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 5. STL David Perron stopped
- 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:00STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:25DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 5:41STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:01STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:01STLRyan Reaves: Boarding5 min
- P3 10:10DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Nyquist5:01
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen6:06
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Cleary – Abdelkader – Nyquist4:41
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader4:51
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Ericsson4:06
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall11:11
xG 0.61–0.83 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson14:25
xG 0.22–0.47 (31%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Sobotka – Reaves5:11
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Berglund – Perron3:21
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – D'Agostini – Berglund6:45
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Steen – Stewart6:36
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell11:04
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:19
xG 0.65–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:10
xG 0.89–0.80 (52%)attempts 10–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).