Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 05 | 27 | 425 |
| NYI | 210 | 111 | 27 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:06NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 9:42WPGToby EnstromAssists: Jim Slater, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 17:08WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 8:41NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:03WPGZach BogosianAssists: Chris Thorburn, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 11:45NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–4
- P3 12:21WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 19:13NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:02NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P2 2:16WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:16WPGBlake Wheeler: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:08WPGEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:42NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:50NYIMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Cormier2:48
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov9:08
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little17:13
xG 1.16–1.06 (52%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Machacek – Kane – Burmistrov3:21
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Bogosian10:08
xG 0.86–0.36 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:41
xG 0.77–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Stuart – Flood2:53
xG 0.15–0.26 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey5:38
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Haley – Martin8:22
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Niederreiter8:21
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares8:15
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:11
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1
- Streit – Jurcina15:58
xG 0.69–0.99 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Staios – Donovan11:00
xG 0.29–1.09 (21%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).