Thu, Apr 5, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 08 | 120 | 237 |
| PIT | 28 | 117 | 27 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:23NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Brian Boyle, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 8:27PITTyler KennedyAssists: Jordan Staal, Zbynek Michalek · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 5:11PITRichard ParkGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Eric Tangradi · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 9:06PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 17:46NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 19:11PITKris LetangENAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:36PITMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:30PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:02NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:10PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
- P3 5:33PITChris Kunitz: Holding2 min
- P3 14:08PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:21PITBrooks Orpik: Kneeing5 min · PPG
- P3 15:21PITBrooks Orpik: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust8:25
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Callahan – Anisimov – Stepan10:00
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Dubinsky8:48
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin7:31
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman12:37
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Bickel6:44
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh2:26
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal9:15
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby11:51
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Park – Dupuis – Tangradi5:48
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Vitale7:50
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang15:00
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Orpik – Michalek13:03
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Engelland – Strait12:23
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).