Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 112 | 18 | 327 |
| OTT | 017 | 117 | 011 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Brian Rolston, Jordan Caron · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:51BOSGreg ZanonGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:56OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 15:27BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:25BOSBrian Rolston: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:04BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P2 14:14OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 6:40BOSShawn Thornton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:11OTTKyle Turris: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:23BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59OTTJesse Winchester: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Seguin10:18
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Rolston – Pouliot – Caron7:42
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Kelly – Peverley – Marchand10:36
xG 0.13–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:25
xG 0.21–0.79 (21%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug4:28
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Corvo – Zanon10:14
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–19goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – Krug3:01
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Klinkhammer – Winchester6:03
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Turris9:16
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening12:43
xG 0.25–0.26 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Neil – O'Brien – Smith7:22
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen13:52
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson15:20
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 21–12goals 1–3
- Phillips – Carkner12:46
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).