Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 02 | 211 | 03 | 11 | 317 |
| EDM | 011 | 17 | 17 | 01 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:21EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jeff Petry, Ryan Jones · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 17:05ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Luca Sbisa · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:41ANABobby RyanAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.56 xG2–1
- P3 13:48EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ales Hemsky · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:12ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:11EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:45ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:08EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:08ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Getzlaf – Perry11:06
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Ryan – Bonino – Smith-Pelly8:18
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Parros – Cogliano – Pelley9:18
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Koivu – Blake – Smith-Pelly3:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Fowler9:26
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Sbisa3:48
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Fowler7:01
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hartikainen – Nugent-Hopkins10:34
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:12
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:09
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Jones – Gagner10:56
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Whitney16:21
xG 1.42–0.83 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Barker – Petry13:32
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Sutton – Teubert12:43
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).