Fri, Apr 6, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Phoenix Coyotes 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 16 | 213 | 113 | 432 |
| STL | 112 | 012 | 08 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13PHXKeith YandleAssists: Daymond Langkow, Raffi Torres · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:26STLPatrik BerglundAssists: T.J. Oshie, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 5:44PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:54PHXShane DoanAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 10:19PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (21)
- P1 6:01STLBarret Jackman: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:30STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P1 11:09PHXMichal Rozsival: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:13STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:25PHXRay Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:54PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:37STLJason Arnott: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:11PHXRostislav Klesla: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:24PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:45STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:03STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03PHXMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:30PHXRaffi Torres: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:30PHXRaffi Torres: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:30PHXRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:30STLMatt D'Agostini: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:09STLChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:09STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:09PHXRostislav Klesla: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35STLJamie Langenbrunner: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:45PHXTaylor Pyatt: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00D'Agostini won the faceoff against Korpikoski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker8:23
xG 1.03–0.02 (99%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski9:22
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Brule7:17
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal7:50
xG 0.11–1.05 (9%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Stone12:09
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Morris – Yandle10:37
xG 1.14–0.96 (54%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson10:54
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sobotka – Reaves – D'Agostini4:53
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Berglund – Perron7:20
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Stewart6:19
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:40
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Polak – Russell8:50
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo10:46
xG 0.22–0.67 (25%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:27
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).