Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 110 | 013 | 233 |
| NJD | 112 | 115 | 28 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59OTTMatt GilroyAssists: Kyle Turris, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:26NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Peter Harrold · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:59OTTJim O'BrienAssists: Erik Condra, Matt Gilroy · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:43NJDPetr SykoraPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Dainius Zubrus · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 10:55NJDStephen GiontaGWGAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 19:17NJDIlya KovalchukENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:50OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:59OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:49NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:59OTTNick Foligno: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening13:05
xG 0.69–0.68 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Klinkhammer – O'Brien – Winchester7:20
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith10:59
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Turris11:20
xG 0.41–0.73 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen12:58
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gilroy15:02
xG 0.56–0.79 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Gilroy – Cowen2:03
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJanssen – Gionta – Carter7:24
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus9:46
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac13:38
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Henrique10:36
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Larsson11:24
xG 1.11–0.43 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Salvador – Zidlicky18:31
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene17:58
xG 0.63–0.72 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).