Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 37 | 17 | 03 | 417 |
| NYR | 011 | 112 | 013 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 2:18WSHMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Keith Aucoin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:13WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 5:58WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 12:44NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Stu Bickel, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:34NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:41NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:41WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:41NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45WSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:40NYRBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
- P3 16:53WSHRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Hendricks
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Brouwer9:32
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ward – Aucoin – Perreault6:41
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Beagle – Johansson8:12
xG 0.04–0.36 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Backstrom12:34
xG 0.45–0.92 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson13:56
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Green12:10
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Wideman – Orlov16:02
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Anisimov – Stepan10:29
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin9:45
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Dubinsky8:48
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust6:16
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman12:42
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Bickel7:52
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Del Zotto5:48
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).