Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 19 | 18 | 225 |
| CGY | 17 | 29 | 27 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00CGYAkim AliuAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 13:33ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:17CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Blake Comeau, Tom Kostopoulos · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 19:42CGYAnton BabchukGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 7:24CGYAkim AliuAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Matt Stajan · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 17:18CGYLee StempniakAssists: Blair Jones, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 19:33ANABobby RyanAssists: Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:38ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:38ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:56CGYAnton Babchuk: Holding2 min
- P2 11:02ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:20CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:02CGYMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53CGYBlair Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:55CGYAkim Aliu: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:55ANAGeorge Parros: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jones won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Bonino – Smith-Pelly6:20
xG 0.44–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hagman – Ryan – Smith-Pelly2:37
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Parros – Pelley – Beleskey4:11
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman5:39
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank7:50
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa7:34
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Fowler9:32
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Comeau – Jones12:51
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Aliu9:40
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Bouma8:36
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross10:37
xG 0.14–0.63 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano14:59
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Babchuk11:55
xG 0.41–0.58 (41%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler16:02
xG 0.41–0.88 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).