Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 221 | 17 | 338 |
| CBJ | 110 | 415 | 212 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:24CBJRick NashAssists: Mark Letestu, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:15CBJCam AtkinsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:32NYIMilan JurcinaAssists: Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 11:12CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Cam Atkinson, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 13:11NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:48CBJJames WisniewskiPPGWGAssists: Vinny Prospal, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 19:31CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Derek Dorsett, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 4:41CBJJack JohnsonAssists: James Wisniewski, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 11:03CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
- P3 16:27NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Mark Streit, Dylan Reese · Slap, 0.05 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:02CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:02NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:02CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:51NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:46NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:01CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:32CBJDarryl Boyce: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:40NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29NYISteve Staios: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares14:33
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey8:41
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2
- Reasoner – Martin – Niederreiter9:49
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Donovan14:12
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Staios – Streit2:46
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Streit – Reese11:25
xG 0.78–0.71 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Umberger – Brassard – Atkinson10:13
xG 0.97–0.93 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu10:31
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Boyce – Boll – Gillies8:53
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Russell – Dorsett – Johansen10:17
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout2:18
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout11:19
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson20:20
xG 0.76–0.92 (45%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).