Sat, Apr 7, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 011 | 111 | 135 |
| FLA | 212 | 16 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02FLAMarcel GocAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:43FLAJohn MaddenGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 10:06FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 8:26CARJoni PitkanenPPAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:36FLAMikael SamuelssonENAssists: Jason Garrison, Marcel Goc · Snap, 0.61 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:18CARJeremy Welsh: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30CARJeremy Welsh: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00FLAMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P3 8:23FLAKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTlusty – Nodl – Sutter6:44
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Nodl – Sutter4:34
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Staal8:50
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Skinner – Welsh12:53
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain19:43
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Allen – Harrison8:52
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Gleason – Faulk12:16
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Kopecky – Wolski2:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg15:45
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim9:56
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Sturm – Madden – Kopecky5:36
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson12:44
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison15:59
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Weaver2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).