Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 211 | 17 | 110 | 428 |
| MIN | 04 | 112 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Shane Doan · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:57PHXTaylor PyattGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 13:53MINDany HeatleyAssists: Mikko Koivu, Chay Genoway · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 14:24PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 1:19PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:51MINDany Heatley: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:12MINDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:33PHXGilbert Brule: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:07MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:21PHXRaffi Torres: Interference2 min
- P3 7:09MINCal Clutterbuck: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:18MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:43PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P3 19:06PHXMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min
- P3 19:23PHXRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:23MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23PHXDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski10:45
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker9:42
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Langkow – Torres – Brule7:37
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal8:11
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson13:45
xG 0.99–0.09 (92%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Klesla – Stone12:51
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle12:41
xG 0.19–0.55 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer6:45
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe9:21
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:45
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Christensen – Johnson – Zucker4:11
xG 0.01–0.29 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Scandella13:47
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Genoway4:28
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Foster – Genoway7:13
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).