Sat, Apr 7, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 115 | 211 | 335 |
| DAL | 08 | 012 | 215 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:05STLKris RussellAssists: Chris Stewart, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 7:54STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 9:09DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P3 13:44STLDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 16:56DALPhilip LarsenAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tomas Vincour · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:33STLChris Stewart: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:43STLKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:58STLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:49DALReilly Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:52DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:52STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:34STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:34DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:32DALScott Glennie: Holding2 min
- P2 16:44DALAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:49STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:01DALLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19STLVladimir Sobotka: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:19DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:47DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Sobotka – Stewart4:53
xG 0.60–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron9:09
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Langenbrunner – Nichol – Crombeen2:40
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Schwartz2:02
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Pietrangelo10:22
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell10:38
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Nystrom – Vincour8:13
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Wandell – Glennie5:29
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Burish – Garbutt6:09
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ryder – Benn – Smith7:21
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dillon10:07
xG 0.68–0.58 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Pardy – Benn10:39
xG 0.18–0.53 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Larsen13:42
xG 0.26–0.62 (29%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).