Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 6, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 312 | 19 | 28 | 629 |
| COL | 114 | 018 | 013 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:09COLMatt DucheneAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P1 12:10NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Matt Halischuk, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 19:59NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Kevin Klein, Andrei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:09NSHRoman JosiAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 1:57NSHBrandon YipAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 6:20NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:13COLChuck Kobasew: Interference2 min
- P2 14:03NSHPatric Hornqvist: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:03COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Hornqvist – Spaling7:52
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Wilson – Smith10:08
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Legwand – Radulov – Bourque10:24
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Tootoo – Yip10:55
xG 0.09–1.21 (7%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi16:13
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Klein – Hillen2:43
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber14:40
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – McLeod – Duchene5:48
xG 0.72–0.13 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn10:34
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- McClement – Mueller – Olver6:31
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:59
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWilson – Barrie14:18
xG 1.31–0.71 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:37
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Johnson13:43
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).