Sat, Jan 19, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 19 | 213 | 437 |
| WPG | 111 | 09 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:02OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Patrick Wiercioch · Slap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 17:12OTTChris NeilGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Colin Greening · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 12:15OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 17:50OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Marc Methot, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:30OTTChris Neil: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:33OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:10OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10WPGNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:30OTTGuillaume Latendresse: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P2 14:35WPGJim Slater: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:18OTTGuillaume Latendresse: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:15WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:29
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris10:55
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Silfverberg11:15
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Regin – Condra – O'Brien5:55
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:01
xG 0.97–0.73 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Benoit – Wiercioch10:11
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips12:21
xG 0.45–0.87 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wellwood – Kane10:21
xG 0.86–0.14 (86%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:14
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Antropov – Ponikarovsky – Burmistrov6:19
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Scheifele6:00
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:07
xG 0.86–0.47 (64%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Clitsome – Postma9:50
xG 0.48–0.68 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Stuart12:54
xG 0.48–0.85 (36%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).