Sat, Jan 19, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 18 | 06 | 121 |
| BOS | 114 | 111 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 8:20BOSDaniel PailleGWGAssists: Gregory Campbell · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 12:50NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 8:13BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:19NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:04BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P1 9:05NYRBrian Boyle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:05NYRBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:53BOSAndrew Ference: Interference2 min
- P2 4:03NYRBrandon Segal: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:34BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 13:35NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:35BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:38NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:38BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:53BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:23BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:04NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:26BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:02NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:02NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Callahan – Stepan4:20
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Hagelin9:11
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan2:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Rupp – Halpern – Segal3:11
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto5:55
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Bickel4:09
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:01
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Paille – Peverley2:46
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille3:43
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic7:30
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin7:42
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk12:02
xG 0.83–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:24
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).