Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 110 | 06 | 226 |
| MTL | 08 | 07 | 17 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Michael Kostka · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:12TORTyler BozakPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.40 xG2–0
- P3 13:51MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:46MTLRyan White: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:02MTLErik Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:00MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:00TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:01MTLTravis Moen: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:21TORMichael Kostka: Interference2 min
- P2 7:14MTLTomas Plekanec: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 8:53TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 13:43TORNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:42MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P3 2:30TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:02TORMikhail Grabovski: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri5:52
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak9:13
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:25
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Brown2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson7:57
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson10:32
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka13:58
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque3:45
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:42
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Prust – White5:31
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk6:32
xG 0.06–0.37 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Gorges2:38
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Diaz8:47
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin11:42
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).