Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 0, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 05 | 07 | 014 |
| STL | 217 | 210 | 29 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:44STLChris StewartPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 0:29STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 16:09STLT.J. OshieSHAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Backes · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 1:15STLChris StewartPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
- P3 14:35STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:22STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:34STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:52DETJan Mursak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05DETDaniel Cleary: Holding2 min
- P1 19:30DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:09DETJordin Tootoo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:43STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:05DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:25STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:25DETJohan Franzen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Filppula – Franzen3:28
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Emmerton2:02
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Tootoo – Abdelkader2:11
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton3:29
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:28
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – White15:10
xG 0.16–0.48 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith12:38
xG 0.13–0.82 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Tarasenko9:11
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron10:04
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves8:09
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz8:19
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pietrangelo14:14
xG 0.60–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Polak – Russell14:18
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:19
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).