Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 19 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
| NSH | 214 | 07 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39NSHMartin EratAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Pekka Rinne · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:08CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 17:55NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:05CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 2. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 3. CBJ Artem Anisimov scored
- 4. NSH Mike Fisher stopped
- 5. CBJ Jack Johnson stopped
- 6. NSH David Legwand scored
- 7. CBJ James Wisniewski stopped
- 8. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 9. CBJ Ryan Johansen stopped
- 10. NSH Colin Wilson stopped
- 11. CBJ Derick Brassard scored
- 12. NSH Craig Smith stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:49NSHBrandon Yip: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:49CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:31NSHScott Hannan: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 13:31CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 15:14NSHMartin Erat: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:22CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:53CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:53NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Dorsett – Anisimov12:35
xG 0.32–0.17 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Umberger – Brassard – Atkinson12:46
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Prospal – Foligno – Johansen11:30
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert5:06
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Johnson19:17
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Moore14:07
xG 0.11–0.22 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin16:48
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson5:41
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Yip – Spaling4:38
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Halischuk3:26
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Smith6:30
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:49
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 26–7goals 0–0
- Klein – Josi2:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hannan – Klein12:13
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).