Sat, Jan 19, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 214 | 116 | 340 |
| DAL | 18 | 17 | 211 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36DALJaromir JagrAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 9:04PHXLauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 11:53PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Martin Hanzal · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 18:38DALJaromir JagrPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 0:31DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 3:30PHXRadim VrbataUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 13:05DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:57PHXDerek Morris: Elbowing2 min
- P2 4:05DALPhilip Larsen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:23DALBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05DALPhilip Larsen: Interference2 min
- P2 16:47PHXRadim Vrbata: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37PHXBoyd Gordon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:39PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wandell won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Korpikoski7:57
xG 0.84–0.07 (93%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker12:14
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Gordon – Bolduc – Chipchura3:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Bolduc – Chipchura2:05
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson13:22
xG 0.74–0.08 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:28
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rundblad2:02
xG 0.09–0.13 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Roy – Eriksson9:05
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Whitney – Ryder – Wandell12:35
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Garbutt6:16
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Fiddler – Nystrom9:05
xG 0.22–0.82 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski12:10
xG 1.18–0.43 (73%)attempts 25–12goals 2–0
- Daley – Benn12:43
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Larsen – Dillon15:18
xG 0.19–1.05 (15%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).