Sun, Jan 20, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 314 | 16 | 429 |
| CGY | 116 | 04 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21CGYLee StempniakPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 13:52SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 15:05SJSMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–1
- P2 18:10SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:00SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:56SJSMartin Havlat: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 12:38CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:35SJSAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:33CGYSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52SJSMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:13CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:36CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:36CGYSven Baertschi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski10:07
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture11:53
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – McLaren5:33
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Galiardi – Wingels12:05
xG 0.09–0.57 (14%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Irwin15:19
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Vlasic14:13
xG 0.73–0.93 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Murray – Braun14:02
xG 0.27–0.88 (23%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Backlund – Baertschi9:39
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Glencross14:11
xG 1.07–0.66 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Horak13:31
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Begin – Jackman – Comeau5:14
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Butler15:40
xG 1.29–0.67 (66%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Sarich – Smith13:07
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano15:59
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).