Sun, Jan 20, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 0, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 011 | 05 | 024 |
| MIN | 111 | 010 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:59MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:11DALAlex Goligoski: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 6:18MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:47DALJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P1 12:59MINMatt Cullen: Charging2 min
- P2 18:40MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:02MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:02DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
- P3 17:59DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Eakin – Garbutt5:36
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Ryder – Wandell8:55
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Fiddler – Nystrom6:06
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Roy – Eriksson10:39
xG 0.06–0.35 (16%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn14:20
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 26–17goals 0–0
- Larsen – Dillon12:55
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski15:42
xG 0.07–0.58 (11%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Parise11:47
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Granlund11:41
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:45
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Konopka – Mitchell – Powe5:09
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prosser10:49
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner18:49
xG 0.71–0.57 (55%)attempts 19–23goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:23
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).