Mon, Jan 21, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 09 | 110 | 06 | 2 | 439 |
| NSH | 26 | 18 | 010 | 00 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10NSHColin WilsonAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:28STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Andy McDonald, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:04STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 17:13NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:53NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Martin Erat, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:10STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:55NSHRich Clune: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:55STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:32NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:37NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58NSHHal Gill: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:25STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:31STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:03STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 6:04STLAlex Pietrangelo: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 12:58STLJaden Schwartz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron8:54
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Steen – Tarasenko10:19
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves3:27
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz8:40
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell13:28
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Pietrangelo13:21
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:05
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHalischuk – Spaling – Smith7:29
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:43
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn7:58
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Spaling2:15
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Ellis7:32
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Hannan – Klein15:01
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
- Weber – Josi14:02
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).