Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 220 | 06 | 439 |
| WSH | 18 | 09 | 117 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:34WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:26WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:32WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 19:14WPGJim SlaterAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 18:44WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:40WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:34WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00WPGJim Slater: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:27WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:02WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P3 10:57WPGOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:31WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:31WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 15:14WSHJoey Crabb: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 17:49WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:44WSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:44WSHMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Ladd – Little9:30
xG 0.59–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane12:43
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Burmistrov – Scheifele6:15
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright4:51
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:09
xG 1.12–0.42 (73%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Stuart15:25
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Postma9:49
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ribeiro – Wolski – Brouwer9:28
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:17
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Wolski – Backstrom2:52
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Crabb – Perreault3:07
xG 0.11–0.26 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Kundratek11:00
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:05
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Poti – Green17:13
xG 0.53–1.33 (28%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).