Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 110 | 08 | 128 |
| MTL | 215 | 28 | 010 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta, Raphael Diaz · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:24MTLAndrei MarkovPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 4:33FLATomas KopeckyPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:31MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Raphael Diaz, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 14:25MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brandon Prust, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 12:01FLABrian Campbell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:21FLAStephen Weiss: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 17:49MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:18MTLRaphael Diaz: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26FLAKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50MTLTravis Moen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:44MTLBrandon Prust: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:19FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26FLATomas Fleischmann: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:13MTLRyan White: Instigator2 min
- P3 3:13MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:13MTLRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:13MTLRyan White: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:13FLATomas Fleischmann: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:37MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P3 9:40FLAKeaton Ellerby: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:20MTLRene Bourque: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mueller won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Matthias – Shore6:02
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann7:08
xG 0.11–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Mueller – Huberdeau6:42
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Parros – Smithson – Skille4:47
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov2:49
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov3:19
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov5:32
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque8:54
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:35
xG 0.26–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White5:52
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk5:31
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Bouillon8:12
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:07
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin10:05
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).